Best Picture:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
The Academy has expanded their Best Picture nominations from five to ten in what I would deem the Dark Knight/Pixar effect. But in reality, only about five or six of these films have a reasonable chance, those being: The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man, unfortunately. Avatar has some serious momentum because at the time the awards are held it will be the highest grossing film of all time. The Hurt Locker has won a variety of awards already and is the critical darling. Precious has an outsider chance, but I don't see it happening. Any Pixar movie seems to always have a chance (I thought Wall-E was a lot better though). Finally, Up in the Air seems to have capitalized on the country's mood of anger during this prolonged recession, so, like Precious and Up, it has a chance of emerging a split vote between Avatar and The Hurt Locker.
Likely winner: Avatar or The Hurt Locker
Should win: A Serious Man
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
This is a tough one. Jeremy Renner has been praised for his performance, but I think the Dude wins this one. I haven't seen Crazy Heart yet though.
Likely winner: Jeff Bridges
Should win: Souleymane Sy Savane, Goodbye Solo
Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Okay, I know the nominators were grasping for candidates; there really haven't been that many great performances this year, but Meryl Streep doesn't always have to be nominated.
Likely winner: Sandra Bullock
Should win: Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
I haven't seen four of these films, but I don't seen anyone ousting Mr. Waltz.
Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
I haven't seen the other three films, but I did enjoy Kendrick's performance.
Likely winner: Mo'Nique
Should win: ?
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Likely winner: Bigelow
Should win: C'mon Quentin
Best Original Screenplay:
Likely winner: The Hurt Locker
Should win: A Serious Man
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Likely winner: Precious
Should win: ?
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1 comment:
Well Robert, looks like we're in agreement about a lot of the nominations this year. I was glad to see some less mainstream movies like "A Serious Man" get a nod - I gotta think that if they had kept it to 5 nominations, that would have been one to miss the cut, as unfortunate as that is. And as much as it hurts me to say it, I do think the momentum of "Avatar" is gonna lead to the Best Picture award, even though there are some way more deserving films. As far as the acting awards go, you're right on the money - I was disappointed to see Miss Laurent's name was nowhere to be found, and Mo'Nique definitely deserves to win, and I can't see her losing out to one of the "Up in the Air" women). The one point I'll significantly disagree with you on is that I think Adapted Screenplay is gonna go to "Up in the Air", despite the Oprah bump that "Precious" has gotten. I don't think it deserves the win over "Precious", but I think the Academy can't help itself when it comes to rewarding the big mainstream, socially relevant (according to them) film.
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